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May 25, 2007

Early Results: Fianna Fail Looking Strong

News about Ireland & the Irish

RT 05/25/07 Election 2007: Fianna Fáil Looking Strong
RT 05/25/07 Election 2007: First Tallies Revealed
BN 05/25/07 FF Candidates Dominate Early Election Tallies
BN 05/25/07 Ahern Takes One Third Of Vote In Own Constituency
RT 05/25/07 Election 2007: Exit Poll Good News For FF
BT 05/25/07 Who Will Grab The Celtic Tiger By The Tail?
BN 05/25/07 Polling Marred By Register Problems
BT 05/25/07 McGuinness And Paisley Shy Away From Press Talks
BT 05/25/07 Stormont Warning On MLA Queries
BT 05/25/07 Toy Clay In Place Of Real Explosives Foiled Bomb Bid
BT 05/25/07 Opin: Cutty Sark, RIP
BT 05/25/07 Opin: War Was Over Almost As Soon As It Had Begun

*********************

http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0525/election2.html?rss

Election 2007: Fianna Fail Looking Strong

Friday, 25 May 2007 13:45

Early indications in the General Election are that Fianna Fail
will form the next government, despite a strong performance by
Fine Gael.

The counting of votes is continuing at 43 constituencies around
the country.

With Fianna Fail's strong performance, the question now is
whether they will actually need a coalition partner.

At this stage of the count, it is clear that an
overall majority is once again within its grasp.

Tallies predict they will hold the vast majority of their seats,
and are in with a chance of adding seats in Meath-East, Galway-
West and Cavan-Monaghan.

Fine Gael are also doing very well, but their potential coalition
partners Labour are having a pretty dismal day so far, and a
number of the Fine Gael gains are likely to be at the expense of
Pat Rabbitte's party.

Every single PD seat appears under some threat at the moment, but
the party may benefit in some constituencies from transfers from
Fianna Fail, including in Dublin South East where party leader
Michael McDowell is in some trouble.

He is in competition for the last seat with John Gormley of the
Greens who, like other Green candidates, will have to rely on
their usual high transfer rate to win a seat.

Sinn Fein has also been squeezed with at least one sitting TD,
Sean Crowe in Dublin South West, looks like losing his seat, and
few of their top targets coming home.

Independents too are being squeezed, if the last election showed
a splintering of the political system, with gains for smaller
parties and Independents, this year will see the two main parties
back with a vengeance.

The first results are expected by mid-afternoon.

*********************

http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0525/election2.html

Election 2007: First Tallies Revealed

Friday, 25 May 2007 12:44

The first tally results for all constituencies of this year's
General Election are in but there have been no formal first
counts as yet.

While the final result will not be clear for many hours yet, a
broad picture is emerging.

It is looking like a very good election for Fianna Fail, which
looks like holding on to many of its seats and being impossible
to exclude from government.

Fine Gael too is having a good day but it appears not good enough
to make Enda Kenny Taoiseach.

Labour is struggling a bit according to the early tallies, and
looks like having a fairly disappointing day.

Sinn Fein seems likely to pick up a couple of seats.

Both the Greens and the PDs will have to wait until late tonight,
or perhaps early tomorrow, to know what sort of an election they
have had, as in many constituencies they will be battling for the
final seats.

These early tallies need to be treated with some caution, as
until all the boxes are open there may be geographical bias.

*********************

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/?jp=312181&rss=rss2

FF Candidates Dominate Early Election Tallies Nationwide

25/05/2007 - 12:23:17

Fianna Fail candidates are dominating the early election tallies
in constituencies across the country.

The party looks set to top the poll in almost all of the 12
Dublin constituencies, as well as most of the other
constituencies outside the capital.

The Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern, Minister for Education Mary Hanafin
and Social Affairs Minister Seamus Brennan all look set to be re-
elected with ease.

In Dublin South Central, Fine Gael's Catherine Byrne looks set to
win the seat vacated by Gay Mitchell, while the party's candidate
in Dublin West, Leo Varadkar, is also polling well.

Brian Hayes may also win back his seat in Dublin South West,
possibly at the expense of Sinn Fein's Sean Crowe.

Elsewhere, the early tallies suggest that Liz O'Donnell of the
PDs has suffered a halving in her vote in Dublin South

Outside Dublin, several ministers also look set to top the poll
in their constituencies, including Defence Minister Willie O'Dea
in Limerick, Communications Minister Noel Dempsey in Meath West
and Transport Minister Martin Cullen in Waterford.

Fianna Fail's Aine Brady appears set to regain Charlie McCreevy's
former seat in Kildare North, while Seamus Kirk is polling well
in Louth, where Fine Gael's Mairead McGuinness is hoping to gain
a second seat for the party.

Michael Smith also looks secure in North Tipperary, where Michael
Lowry is likely to top the poll.

Meanwhile, Fianna Fail should take a second seat in Kerry South,
with Labour's Breda Moynihan Cronin appearing to be in trouble.

In Cork South Central, Enterprise Minister Micheal Martin is
leading the running, but Deirdre Clune could take a second seat
for Fine Gael.

*********************

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/?jp=312180&rss=rss2

Ahern Takes One Third Of Vote In Own Constituency

25/05/2007 - 12:20:18

With a fifth of the boxes opened in Bertie Ahern's four seat
Dublin Central constituency, the Taoiseach was polling around
31.5% of the vote, with Labour TD Joe Costello sitting on 14.9%,
veteran independent TD Tony Gregory on 14.1% and Fine Gael's
Pascal Donohoe was running on 9.5%.

Sinn Fein's Mary Lou McDonald had attracted 8.2% with ballot
boxes in some party strongholds still to be opened, while the
Green Party's Patricia McKenna on 6.7%.

In Opposition Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny's Mayo constituency in
the west of Ireland his personal vote was proving very strong as
his party targeted three seats in the five seat constituency.

Early tallies from another Sinn Fein target constituency in
Donegal South West suggested rising star Pearse Doherty may not
make a breakthrough for the party.

*********************

http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0525/election1.html

Election 2007: Exit Poll Good News For FF

Friday, 25 May 2007 12:41

Political parties are studying the results of an RT exit poll
which suggests that Fianna Fail will win almost exactly the same
share of the vote as in 2002, but that Fine Gael will increase
its vote by around 4%.

The poll, carried out by Lansdowne Market Research, shows
decreases in support for Labour and the PDs, while the Greens and
Sinn Fein will be disappointed not to have made a major
breakthrough.

The process of counting votes in the General Election is under
way at 43 constituencies. Early tallies which are a strong
indication of trends will be available by mid-morning.

First results are expected by mid-afternoon.

While the current coalition parties have a lead over the
alternative, the final result is likely to be close and to be
determined by transfers.

Yesterday RT asked 3,000 people at 166 polling stations in every
constituency in the country how they voted.

Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have reacted cautiously to the results
of the poll.

Fianna Fail General Secretary Sean Dorgan said he would wait to
see some real results later today, and that a lot of seats would
come down to a handful of votes.

Fine Gael's Director of Elections Frank Flannery said the result
was not a bad one and that polls tended to understate support for
the party.

The poll has a margin of error of 2.5%, but after the last
election, the RT/Lansdowne Market Research exit poll proved to
be extremely accurate.

It got the national first preference totals correct to within
around one percentage point.

The experts have been crunching the numbers all night, and the
results are as follows:

Fianna Fail is on 41.6% - marginally above what it won in the
last election.

Fine Gael is on 26.3%, almost 4% ahead of its 2002 result.

Potential coalition partner Labour has slipped 1% from the last
time, down to 9.9%.

The PDs look to be in serious trouble, down to 2.6%, a 1 1/2%
drop from 2002.

The Greens are up 1%, but will be disappointed to be at just
4.8%.

There appears to be no big breakthrough for Sinn Fein, also up
just under 1% to 7.3%.

Independents and others are down nearly 3% at 7.5%.

Of course, the first preference vote does not give a cast-iron
indication of how many seats will be won.

Fianna Fail got a huge seat bonus in the last election and the
shape of the next Government may still be determined by
transfers.

*********************

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/article2582134.ece

Who Will Grab The Celtic Tiger By The Tail?

[Published: Friday 25, May 2007 - 13:12]

Bertie Ahern dug up old friends and called in favours to return
to power. Chris Thornton looks at his chances as the votes come
in.

Now that the whole pesky business of dealing with the electorate
is over, the real politicking can begin.

Across the Republic today, votes are being counted to determine
the makeup of the next Dail and, ultimately, whether Bertie
Ahern's remarkable reign as Taoiseach can continue. The outcome
will also decide if Sinn Fein is ready to fulfil their ambitions
of governing Ireland from both sides of the border.

Since the Republic operates a system of proportional
representation - similar to our Assembly and council elections -
it could take some time before the last transfers are counted.

But even after the full makeup of the Dail is known, many experts
are predicting that the establishment of a government will not
immediately follow.

The Dail is not due to sit again until mid-June, meaning there
could be three weeks of horse-trading to establish who will be
Taoiseach.

Eighty-three seats are needed to lead a government. The problem
is that no party seems capable of winning an outright majority,
meaning a coalition will be the only vehicle to carry the
Taoiseach into office.

For the past five years, Mr Ahern served thanks to the support of
the Progressive Democrats. But at least four other parties could
be in the mix by the end of counting.

Bertie Ahern started the campaign in difficult straits, with the
Irish media asking awkward questions about his unusual method of
buying a home. But in this case the voting public appears to have
admired the closet more than the skeleton in it, giving Mr Ahern
credit for getting a great deal on the wicked Dublin housing
market.

The Celtic Tiger is carrying Mr Ahern a long way. So thanks to
his bounce back up the polls, the basic assumption is that Mr
Ahern's Fianna Fail will emerge this weekend as the largest
party, with their rivals in Fine Gael in second place.

After that, the makeup of the government becomes as much a
question of maths as of matching policies. If the PDs bring in a
handful of seats - and there is some doubt about this - Mr Ahern
may be happy enough to carry on with the current coalition.

But Mr Ahern has been hedging his bets, suggesting he could share
power with Labour. As potentially the third biggest party, they
could put him back in power, but their leader, Pat Rabbitte, says
that won't happen.

The other major possibility is a coalition between Enda Kenny's
Fine Gael, Labour and possibly the Greens to make up the numbers.

And then there's Sinn Fein. Gerry Adams is widely projected to
hoover up ten Dail seats, which could make him the kingmaker.

Virtually everyone says they won't invite Sinn Fein into
government. Mr Ahern says its their economic policies that he
objects to. But Sinn Fein are counting on ten seats being awfully
tempting.

And pre-election pledges about coalitions tend to be written in
sand. If you hear party leaders start to use phrases like "in the
national interest" next week, you'll know they're contemplating a
deal.

One such deal might not see Sinn Fein actually in a coalition. If
they just voted for Mr Ahern as Taoiseach of a minority
government, they would still wield enormous influence - the
threat of withdrawing their support would be a constant point of
pressure on the new government.

Mr Adams says he'd prefer to be in government, and the Shinners
have pencilled in Education as their preferred portfolio -
meaning they could run schools on both sides of the border and
try harmonising education policy.

Either outcome - Sinn Fein as part of the Irish Government or the
crutch supporting it - will move Irish unity up the political
agenda. Sinn Fein's minimum price will be a policy paper on
removing the border.

Although that idea carries the presumption that such a paper
could be produced in the lifetime of the new government - and if
the results are as close as predicted, there's a danger that
could be relatively short. An inconclusive election could see the
voters being asked to try again, please.

c Belfast Telegraph

*********************

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/?jp=312108&rss=rss2

Polling Marred By Register Problems

25/05/2007 - 07:21:56

Yesterday's election was reportedly marred by widespread problems
relating to the electoral register.

Reports this morning say thousands of voters encountered serious
difficulties in casting their vote at polling stations in several
parts of the country.

Many found that their names were no longer on the register, while
others were sent to the wrong polling station or given the wrong
card number.

The problems are believed to have been caused by the Government's
?12m campaign to clean up the register.

The Green Party is already calling for a formal investigation
into the way the clean-up was handled, but the Department of the
Environment says it has received no reports of any voting
difficulties.

*********************

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/article2581677.ece

McGuinness And Paisley Shy Away From Press Talks

[Published: Friday 25, May 2007 - 09:19]
By Noel McAdam

The prospect of regular Press conferences involving First
minister Ian Paisley and Deputy First minister Martin McGuinness
has been shelved, it emerged last night.

Ministers have decided against making announcements on crunch
decisions immediately after Executive meetings at Stormont.

Instant Press releases also appear unlikely.

Instead the ministers intend to make statements first to the
Assembly, probably on Mondays following Thursday Executive
sessions.

In the last administration then First minister David Trimble and
Deputy First minister Seamus Mallon usually held Press
conferences soon after Executive meetings.

"The new Executive has decided on a change. It is felt it is more
appropriate for ministers to report back first to Assembly
members, rather than going public," a source said.

The change was confirmed by Assembly officials yesterday as the
ministers held their second meeting since devolution was
restored.

Ministers and their departments are required to give the Assembly
Speaker William Hay's office at least two and a half hours notice
if ministers intend to make a statement.

But with the regular Assembly week not kicking off until noon on
Monday, this gives ministers and officials until 9.30am on
Mondays to put ministerial statements in gear.

Meanwhile, it has emerged the first legislation for the new
Assembly - the Budget Bill - is likely to be introduced in the
next fortnight.

The budget legislation is likely to pass all stages in the
Assembly within a few weeks because it needs Royal assent before
the summer recess, which begins on July 7.

c Belfast Telegraph

*********************

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/article2581779.ece

Stormont Warning On MLA Queries

[Published: Friday 25, May 2007 - 11:16]
By Noel McAdam

The head of the Assembly's self-styled opposition today warned
the Executive it must strike a balance between informing the
public and allowing MLAs to question Ministers.

Alliance leader David Ford's criticism came as it emerged the
Executive has decided against making announcements immediately
after its meetings.

And it emerged Mr Ford has tabled a specific request asking First
Minister Ian Paisley, Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness or
Regional Development Minister Conor Murphy to make a formal
statement on the water charges issue.

Speaking after tabling the request with Speaker William Hay's
office, Mr Ford said: "There is a balance to be struck between
informing the general public of Executive proposals and making
official statements to the Assembly which would allow MLAs to
question the responsible Minister."

Mr Ford, whose party has joined with independents including the
Green Party's Brian Wilson and Kieran Deeney to form an
'opposition', said: " I believe for accountability that MLAs must
get a chance to question Ministers, but there is no reason why
there could not be a brief statement after Executive meetings."

c Belfast Telegraph

*********************

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/article2581620.ece

Toy Clay In Place Of Real Explosives Foiled Bomb Bid

[Published: Friday 25, May 2007 - 08:38]
By Brian Rowan

A dissident republican plot to bomb a police college was foiled
by Special Branch who substituted a plasticine-type substance for
real explosives, the Belfast Telegraph can reveal today.

The top secret intelligence operation, which relates to a
Continuity IRA attack on the PSNI training college at Garnerville
in 2002, is just one example of how the dissident republican
operations had been compromised by the security forces.

In April 2002, the Continuity IRA claimed responsibility for the
Garnerville attack.

But, according to a senior intelligence source, the bomb wasn't a
bomb - at least not when it got to its target.

Its explosive had been "substituted" with a plasticine-type
substance - an operation made possible because Special Branch had
inside information that dissident republicans planned an attack.

By the time the bomb was placed at Garnerville, Special Branch
knew the device posed no threat.

In an Army operation at the scene, the gates of the college were
damaged by a controlled explosion and the "bomb" appeared real.

Shortly after the incident, police and politicians condemned the
"attack " - one of them the then SDLP Policing Board member Alex
Attwood.

At the time he said: "This attack has been carried out by those
who have no understanding as to where our politics and our
community have moved."

Contacted last night by the Belfast Telegraph, he said: "There
may be limited occasions when the full picture does not emerge
because it would jeopardise legitimate, human rights compliant
intelligence operations."

He added: "Police still need to answer the question why were
people not apprehended. Have people been arrested and charged?"

The explosive, used in a second bomb in Belfast city centre, in
the same period, was also "substituted". The security forces have
since disrupted many dissident operations.

Now the police and MI5 are aware of a debate going on inside
dissident republicanism on a future strategy - but are not yet
clear what the outcome will be.

"They are so disparate," one source commented, adding that this
raises the question of "whether they will be able to come up with
a collective view."

Mr Attwood also believes a significant discussion is under way.
He said: " There is a debate going on."

c Belfast Telegraph

*********************

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/opinion/article2581768.ece

Opin: Kevin Myers: Cutty Sark, RIP

[Published: Friday 25, May 2007 - 11:04]

(From the Kansas City Star 05/21/07: Cutty Sark Damaged -
Greenwich, England A spectacular fire early Monday heavily
damaged the clipper ship Cutty Sark, one of London's proudest
relics of the 19th century tea trade with China. After a quick
look at the charred hull, custodians said Monday that it could
still be made as good as new - by adding millions more to a
restoration project already costing $50 million.)

The virtual destruction of the 19th century tea-clipper Cutty
Sark comes like a hammer-blow to my heart. Not merely was it one
of the most beautiful artefacts I have ever seen, but it was the
most perfect alliance of form and function.

Cutty Sark was designed to bring tea at high speed across the
world, and then, when the tea-trade had become dominated by
steamers which could navigate through the new Suez Canal, it
brought wool from Australia, sometimes at 15 knots, day and
night, making four hundred land-miles between noon and noon.

Ship for ship, and mile by nautical mile, the Cutty Sark could
outrun the early steamships, but it was unable to pass through
canals under its own way, and of course, could be becalmed.

With their raked prows and their huge spread of sail, the
clippers were the most beautiful ships ever built, their deep
draught enabling them to sail close to the wind, which meant
added speed.

They were the final aria in the long opera which had first joined
keel and canvas in the xebecs and dhows of the Mediterranean. But
never had timber and sail achieved such dynamic harmony as they
did on those vessels fleeting across the South China Seas towards
the Cape of Good Hope, with their cargoes of Assam, Darjeeling
and Greenleaf.

This was also the era of the sea shanties, the worksongs of
sailors as they hauled the shrouds and reefed the sails, from
Brest and Liverpool, San Francisco and Shanghai. The British
merchant fleet was larger than that of the rest of the world put
together, employing thousands of Irishmen from the ports of
Dublin, Waterford, Cork, Claddagh and Belfast.

The sea-shanties fused Irish melodies with the airs of the
English West Country, of the Highlands, and of New England; hence
The Leaving of Liverpool, The Rio Grande and The Mermaid, which
belong to no nation and to all. So steam abolished not just sail
but song, and the clippers were the last ships on which sailors
weighed the anchor to rhythmic singing: Yo oh heave-ho.

The dynamic relationship between the English language and the
call of the sea was sealed by the coincidental emergence of three
great laureates of the ocean, during the brief reign of the
clippers: the Pole, Joseph Conrad, the Englishman, John
Masefield, and the Scot, Robert Louis Stevenson.

Joseph Conrad's novels, beginning with Nigger of the Narcissus of
1897 and Lord Jim a couple of years later, gave to the idiom of
the sea-novel a gravitas it has retained ever since. John
Masefield's Salt Water Ballads, written when he was just 21,
provided a new and enormously popular poetic medium.

"I must down to the seas again, for the call of the running tide,
Is a wild call and a clear call that may not be denied; And all I
ask is a windy day with the white clouds flying, And the flung
spray and the blown spume, and the seagulls crying."

But it had been Stevenson's Treasure Island of 1883 which
imperishably united the sea and English literature. It is one of
the most powerfully influential books in all of Anglophone
culture.

A child today in Nebraska or in Alice Springs will have probably
heard of Long John Silver, Blind Pugh and the Spanish Main. Hence
modern films like Pirates of the Caribbean can still entrance the
portly, pot-bellied McMicrosoft generation of teenage
landlubbers, for whom all obsolete technology is otherwise
repulsive; yet their youthful follicles bristle, and some ancient
Viking gene is stirred, by the very words foret'gallant and
fo'c'sle, and of the sound of the yards cracking in a brisk
trade-wind.

So, to be sure, Cutty Sark can be claimed as a triumph for the
Dumbarton shipyard which built her in 1869; but she was a truly
divine proof of the human need for beauty.

The rugged shipwrights of the Clyde had an aesthetic which
rejoiced in the clean lines of the ship they hewed from wood,
around the steel-frame which gave the clipper its bodily
strength.

This enabled the clipper to take the pounding of the huge waves
as it rounded the Horn, leaving the Indian Ocean and entering the
brutal Atlantic.

Moreover, Cutty Sark was so utterly elemental, a triumph of the
rudiments of hand and wood, wind, canvas and sea.

And those who steered the clipper out of Shanghai were the last
of a maritime culture which once employed hundreds of thousands
of men, and which enabled Europe to spread its power around the
world.

With steam, that culture largely perished within a generation.

All that truly remained of it until this last weekend was one of
the greatest sailing vessels of all time - and now Cutty Sark is
in ashes.

Whatever they erect in its place will be an ersatz confection,
which might as well be of plasterboard; for its timbers would
never have felt the rush of brine on their seaward side, never
have echoed to barefooted sailors dancing to the hornpipe above,
nor felt the brisk spume of an Atlantic squall.

The Cutty Sark is dead: RIP.

c Belfast Telegraph

*********************

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/opinion/article2581788.ece

Opin: Brian Rowan: War That Was Over Almost As Soon As It Had Begun

[Published: Friday 25, May 2007 - 11:22]

Security expert Brian Rowan asks where the new political
landscape in Northern Ireland leaves dissident republicans

From inside the world of intelligence they are watching the
debate that is about the future of dissident republicanism.

It's not like watching the IRA.

The world of the dissidents is a fractured, complicated, confused
place.

"The question was always going to be - what were they going to do
after the May 8?"

This is a security source speaking - thinking out loud about the
dissidents in the new political era of Paisley and McGuinness.

"We had assessed that they were going to be in this thinking mode
now," he continued.

"You could see a debate going on."

But where will that debate lead? Will the dissidents abandon
armed struggle, as has been suggested recently?

"That reflects some thinking, but not all of the thinking," the
security source told this newspaper.

"They are so disparate," he continued, and that raises a question
about "whether they will be able to come up with a collective
view" .

The war of the dissidents threatened so much in those first and
second bombs in Moira and Portadown in 1998.

They were deliberately placed in the constituencies of Jeffrey
Donaldson and David Trimble.

The Good Friday Agreement hadn't yet been negotiated, and the
bombs were the work of those who had learned their trade inside
the IRA, but who were now presenting themselves as a republican
alternative.

This was the first public manifestation of the opposition to the
Adams/McGuinness peace strategy.

The IRA felt the need to speak - to clarify its position, and
that came in a meeting I had with the organisation's 'P O'Neill'
in west Belfast on Tuesday, February 24, 1998 - just 24 four
hours after the Portadown bomb.

P O'Neill speaks from a script, and this meeting was no
different:

:: the complete cessation of military operations remains intact;

:: there is no split in the IRA;

:: the IRA operates as a single organisation;

:: it doesn't have satellite organisations or assist other
organisations;

:: there has been an obvious attempt to dictate our agenda, for
example using old IRA codes (codewords used to authenticate bomb
warnings) and technology;

:: we will not let anyone determine our agenda. We remain open-
minded about who is involved in this and whose agenda they are
working.

I asked did the briefing amount to a denial of IRA involvement in
the Moira and Portadown bombs, and was told: "It amounts to
that."

Almost a decade ago, the dissident war had the appearance of
something that was very real and well resourced in terms of the
wherewithal to do damage.

The IRA hadn't split in terms of serious haemorrhaging, but it
had lost a number of key people including the then "quartermaster
general" Micky McKevitt and its "director of engineering".

The then Chief Constable Sir Ronnie Flanagan described events
well when he spoke of a flag being raised "just to determine how
much support would rally to that dissident cause".

There was never enough to seriously threaten the Adams/McGuinness
leadership, and for all of the attacks since, the dissidents
buried themselves in their slaughter in Omagh in August 1998.

They were shamed off their war stage, and while they crept back
and have killed since, this has been a grubby fight and a play
for attention in a world that has passed them by.

The accompanying news story shows the level of security
infiltration and how the dissidents have been compromised.

Yes they still have the ability to kill, to burn down a store, to
maybe get the odd bomb to explode or mortar to fire, but for what
purpose.

Is it going to force the "Brits" out or turn the new political
arrangements upside down?

The answer is no.

The dissidents have been defeated inside their own communities -
and this was demonstrated in the voting in the March election.

"They are a disparate bunch of individuals and groups," another
security source told this newspaper.

And this source too questioned their ability to come up with
something that could be considered "a collective or agreed
position".

So even if the dissidents do say something - as it is suggested
they might - it will not be instantly accepted.

They operate in a foggy place where nothing is clear - except for
one thing. A war that ended in stalemate and could not be won by
the IRA will not be won by them.

Whatever is said or not said by the dissidents in the period
ahead, the security assessment is that in time "they will almost
wither out".

Whether they say it or not - their war was over almost as soon as
it began.

c Belfast Telegraph

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